Given the choice, does it make more sense to be pessimistic or optimistic? I was thinking about this one night, and, as usual, I decided to explore the question mathematically, using the tools of game theory. Credit goes to Megan for helping me figure this one out. The basic problem I had was this: Everyone says you should be optimistic, but my objection to this claim has always been “what if the universe is really a terrible place where mostly bad things happen – why should you be optimistic then?” Megan insisted that it made sense to be optimistic, and I thought I could prove her wrong mathematically. I did some thinking, though, and concluded that it actually does make sense to be optimistic, regardless of the nature of the universe.
Let’s use a simple model of reality: events happen, and they’re either good or bad, to varying degrees.
In this model, one of three things is true:
- Reality is fundamentally a good place: the sum of the good experiences is greater than the sum of the bad experiences
- Reality is fundamentally a neutral place: the sum of the bad experiences is roughly equal to the sum of the good experiences
- Reality is fundamentally a bad place: the sum of the bad experiences is greater than the sum of the good experiences
You might object to my model of reality and claim that it’s too simple to be useful. Just for you, I’ll add another possibility:
- Reality is too complex to be characterized by simple good/ bad models.
As you experience life, you’ll try to build a model of the universe, and part of this model is how or bad the universe is. Ideally your model is perfect, but invariably you’re going to get things wrong. If you’re going to model how good or bad the universe is, is it better to err on the side of good or bad? We’ll say that optimism means believing the universe is better than it really is, while pessimism means believing the universe is worse than it really is. I claim that, regardless of the true nature of the universe, an optimistic strategy is the best strategy to pursue.
To prove my claim, I have constructed a ‘truth table’ which describes the outcomes of optimistic and pessimistic strategies in the four cases listed above. In each case, the Optimistic strategy pays off more than the pessimistic strategy.
| Nature of the Universe vs. Life Strategy | |||
| Nature of Universe | Optimism Result |
Pessimism Result |
Winner |
| Good | Life is good, and you enjoy it to its fullest. | Life is good, but you don’t enjoy it to its fullest because you’re worrying about things that are unlikely to happen. | Optimism. |
| Neutral | Life is OK, but you put a positive spin on things and as a result enjoy them more. You spend less time worrying about bad things that might happen, and more time anticipating and enjoying the good things. When bad things happen, you get over them quicker because you’re convinced more good things are in store for you. | Life is OK, but you put a negative spin on things, and as a result, you enjoy them less. You spend more time worrying about bad things that might happen, and less time anticipating and enjoying the good things. When bad things happen, you take longer to get over them because you’re convinced they’re going to keep happening to you. | Optimism. |
| Bad | Life is tough, but you’re oblivious to the fact. Bad things happen often, but you don’t linger on them. On the rare occasion good things happen, you enjoy them to their fullest. | Life is tough, but you think it’s worse than it really is. When bad things happen, you reflect upon how miserable life is. When good things happen, you tell yourself that they won’t last. | Optimism. |
| Undefined | Bad things and good things both happen. When the good things happen, you enjoy them. When the bad things happen, you don’t dwell on them because you know they’re temporary. When nothing good or bad is happening, you stay positive and think good things are ahead in your future. | Bad things and good things both happen. When the good things happen, you enjoy them. When bad things happen, you dwell on them because you think you have more of the same to suffer through. When nothing good or bad is happening, you’re in a negative mood because you’re overestimating the probability of bad things happening in your future | Optimism. |
If you find yourself worrying about the future or fretting about the past, just remember – Optimism is always an intelligence choice that will make you happier in the long run.