Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

A ‘First-Step’ Proposal

Friday, June 1st, 2007

I think that finding an economic model to subsidize fixed-cost development of ideas is the problem to solve right now. An effective solution would have extremely positive benefits for every human being on the face of the earth. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, here’s a simple example: The cost of developing a drug, testing it, and proving that it works so the satisfaction of various regulatory bodies is very high, on the order of one billion dollars. The cost of actually manufacturing the drug once it’s approved, howerver, is almost zero in most cases.

Currently, the way companies pay for development of drugs is through monopolies granted to them by the government: if you pay the cost to develop an idea, you’re the only one who can use the idea for a certain period of time. This worked well in the past, when fixed cost development was rarer. The patent model presents all kinds of problems now that most development in developed nations is of the fixed cost variety. Software patents are granted for absurd algorithms, and the question of ‘content ownership’ leads to manufacturers spending their time finding creative ways to break their products by incorporating ‘Digital Rights Management’ software. I think it’s also far from the ideal situation. In an ideal world, there would be no such thing as patents, and people would still develop ideas anyhow. How can we approximate this idea?

I have a simple solution that I think might actually work. It invovles government and taxation and redistribution of income, so I think it’s something that ought to be considered very carefully, but I think it would be quite effective. Although it is a form of government spending, If this system were implemented in place of other existing governmental systems, I think it could have a positive effect on the budget at as whole. Here’s how it would work:

Every american citizen gets a “basket” of money to spend annually. This basket of money is given to them by the government, but not in the form of cash. The ‘basket’ is given in the form of electronic tokens with monetary values. Americans can choose to spend these tokens however they want. Any person or group can sign up to accept these tokens. Signing up to accept the tokens requires you to agree to disclose as public knowledge all intellectual works you (or your company) produces, as well as your financial records.

I’m not sure what value these tokens would have, but my thinking now is that if every american had around $1,000 worth of tokens to spend, that amount of money ($300 Billion) would more than exceed the amount of public and private money spent to develop drugs and other fixed cost programs. By comparison, in 2007, the NSF recieved just 6 Billion Dollars.

Basically, it’s a micropayment system that people are forced to buy into, and which they can only spend on entities that agree to make public all intellectual works that they produce. The money could be accepted by charities, which would simplify the tax code by allowing us to eliminate the concept of a tax-exempt organizations. The money could be accepted by bloggers who agreed to make all of their information public,

The advantage it has over just having people giving that money away now is largely psychological, I think. People are reluctant to fork over money in a micropayment sense, especially for something they’re already getting for free. If you had $1,000 worth of these tokens, however, and you had to spend them somehow (or else the government would simply reclaim the money internally), people would spend them on things they thought were really important. Market-driven solutions, I think, are always best.

You could maybe extend this model further, and use it to pay for the entire education system. The more I think about it, the more I like it. What do you think?

On Taxes

Monday, April 16th, 2007

Taxes are due today. Every time I do my taxes, I feel my temper gradually increasing as I have to trod my way through a ridiculous mess of invasive personal questions. The best part of the whole mess is that the people who design the tax system don’t care how complicated it is, becuase they can just hire someone else to do it for them.

On Politics and Intelligence

Friday, April 13th, 2007

We had a ’round table’ type discussion in my AI class today about the Turing Test and the feasibility of algorithms that can pass it. In particular, the discussion centered on the Chinese Room thought experiment. The “Turing Test” is a method proposed by Alan Turing (although he didn’t call it that) to tell whether or not a computer is intelligent. Basically, a human converses with the computer via an instant-messenger style interface for a half hour, and at the end of the half hour, the human has to be able to tell whether or not the computer actually was a computer or was a human being.

This guy Searle argued that even if a computer could pass the turing test, it still might not have any understanding. A computer follows a set of rules to take input and produce output. Suppose we designed a computer that could easily pass a turing test, provided that turing test was administered in chinese. When presented with sentences in chinese, the computer would follow its rulebook and respond with some more chinese. If a human being were to sit in a room and follow the same algorithm that the computer followed, he could be said to be “passing” the turing test for intelligence, even though he would have no understanding of chinese. Searle argued that his “Chinese Room” example means that passing a turing test doesn’t make a computer intelligent.

First, let me state my opinion that arguing about wither property p applies to object x is pointless unless you’re dealing with a formally defined system. Then, you can prove either way or perhaps prove that “p applies to x” is undecidable. Either way, the nature of the debate is pretty simple. When you deal with that messy place some folks call “meatspace,” however, the arguments just get ridiculous. Invariably somebody brings up what “webster” says is the case. Words mean slightly different things to everybody that uses them, and these arguments almost always boil down to what very abstract words mean to individuals, which is why I think it’s stupid to even argue about such things. Either you think p applies to x or you don’t; there is no right answer. I tried, then to answer in terms of my understanding of how must people define intelligence.

Suppose you ask a person “Alice” whether or not an agent “Bob” is exhibiting intelligence. By agent, I mean anything – person, computer, animal, or particle. In my experience, Alice will only say Bob is intelligent if Alice thinks that Bob makes decisions in a manner roughly isomorphic to the way she (Alice) makes decisions. In other words, most people will say that something that doesn’t think in the same manner that they do is not intelligent. An algorithm that uses brute force to make moves in a game of chess operates in a manner so different from most of us that we won’t label it as intelligent. If the algorithm has a way of evaluating the value of each move based upon one or two predicted moves, uses knowledge of the history of its oponent, and perhaps makes mistakes, more people would be willing to label it “intelligent.”

The World of Politics is full of examples. How many pundits decry those who dont share their opinions as stupid? I saw a magazine cover once, asking about the result of the 2004 election, saying “How can 59 Million people be so stupid?” The 59 Million number was supposed to be the number of people that voted for Bush. Unfortunately for the Daily Mirror, counting after the election increased the total number of votes for Bush to 62 Million and the number of votes for Kerry to 59 Million. Such are the dividends of arrogance, I suppose.

As for whether or not machines could ever posses intelligence, I think that if you want say that machines can’t ever posses intelligence, you must either conclude that humans don’t posses intelligence, or that humans are somehow magical. My reasoning is simple – if you believe in the laws of science, you believe that humans are made up of particles that follow rules. A computer could simulate a human being atom by atom using the same rules. Unless you think that humans are somehow “magic” in that they don’t follow the same rules as the rest of the universe, you’d have to conclude that a [sufficiently powerful] computer could do anything a human mind could do. As to whether this will ever be feasible, that’s an entirely different debate. My answer is a solid “maybe.”